To be clear, I do not think that Newt Gingrichstands a hope in hell of being nominated as the Republican candidate forpresident. There is simply way too much stacked against him: he has proved tobe an inept campaign manager, he can’t come close to matching Romney’s money,the Republican establishment loathes him, and (perhaps most important of all)South Carolina played too perfectly to Newt’s strengths in a way that is highlyunlikely to be repeated as the primary battle drags on.
My prediction: Newt rides the momentum of SCfor everything it’s worth, fighting until his last dollar is gone. Perhaps hewins another, perhaps he comes close; in either case, he deals irreparable damageto Romney. I have to wonder if the worst damage hasn’t already been done: threestates down, and the presumptive Republican candidate has won (then lost—the recountin Iowa went to Santorum) in a squeaker, won respectably in New Hampshire, andgot his ass handed to him in South Carolina. This could potentially go on for along time, and every primary and caucus that passes without Romney locking inthe nomination bleeds him more. It’s not like four years ago in the protractedbattle between Obama and Hilary—there, we had two strong candidates withdevoted and indeed worshipful followings, and whatever resentment might havelingered, there was never any question that the loser would get behind thewinner.
That isn’t a certainty here. Quite theopposite, actually. The antipathy to Romney is powerful, powerful enough toelevate wingnuts like Bachman, Cain, and Perry, a religious bigot likeSantorum, and … well, honestly, I don’t know how to classify Newt. All of theabove?
Mind you, I’m not totally counting out Newt.Just mostly. “Not a hope in hell” normally means no chance whatsoever, buthaving followed this carnival for what feels like ten years now, I don’t wantto commit myself to the reasonable prediction. If I was a betting man, I’d saythe good money’s on Romney … but I’d be really, really tempted to put a dollardown on Newt’s long odds. The old chestnut, “That’s so crazy, it might justwork!” needs a re-jigging here. The Republican base is so crazy, they justmight nominate Newt. How’s that?
For what it’s worth, I think an Obama-Gingrichshowdown is precisely what the Republicans need. Would I be utterly gleeful tosee Newt get destroyed by Obama? Yes. Would I be over the moon to watch theFOX/Limbaugh industrial-complex stymied? YES. A thousand times, yes. But I alsowant conservatism in the U.S. to return to its senses, for all our sakes. Ithink it needs its Goldwater moment again, to be so thoroughly destroyed thatit has no choice but to reject the Palin/Bachman/Santorum wing of the party, todiscredit the FOX contingent, and to embrace its intelligent spokespeople.
Of course, I say this knowing that aGingrich-Obama showdown holds a 1% chance of Newt winning. At which point,Newfoundland doesn’t feel far enough away and I might start looking forEnglish-language universities in Sweden.